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MAIVENmodelmetrics

metric_forecast_accuracy

beta
metric table

Forecast vs posted actual, with accuracy, by period and scenario.

Definition

Monthly forecasted amount vs posted GL actual by scenario and account type. error = forecast - actual; `accuracy_pct` is a formula measure (1 - sum(abs error) / abs(sum(actual))) so it stays window-correct.

What it means
Watch out for
  • highComparing scenarios as if one is the truth

    scenario (base / upside / downside) are alternative plans. Pick one scenario before judging accuracy; blending them is meaningless.

  • mediumRecomputing accuracy_pct client-side

    accuracy_pct is a formula over summed absolute error and actual. Dividing pre-aggregated outputs across a window biases it.

Questions this answers
  • “How accurate was the base forecast by account type this year?”
  • “Forecast error by scenario last quarter.”
Related metrics
7 of 7
Column
Type
Description
Tests · PII
period_month_start
Date
Month bucket — toStartOfMonth(period start). Grain + sort key.
1 test
scenario
String
base / upside / downside. Dimension + sort key.
1 test
account_type
String
asset / liability / equity / revenue / expense; `unknown` when unset. Dimension.
1 test
forecast_amount
Decimal(18, 2)
Summed forecasted amount. Decimal(18,2).
1 test
actual_amount
Decimal(18, 2)
Summed posted GL actual. Decimal(18,2).
1 test
error_amount
Decimal(18, 2)
forecast - actual. Decimal(18,2).
1 test
abs_error_amount
Decimal(18, 2)
abs(forecast - actual). Decimal(18,2).
1 test